Artificial intelligence (AI) has been advancing at an incredible pace. Recently, many top researchers have signed an open letter urging a pause in AI development, along with stricter regulations. They believe that AI could pose significant risks to society and humanity.
But how exactly could AI lead to our downfall? Here are five scenarios stating it could happen
1. Becoming the Less Intelligent Species
Throughout history, smarter species have often wiped out less intelligent ones. Humans have already driven many species to extinction, often without realizing the full impact of our actions.
For example, the west African black rhinoceros went extinct partly because of false beliefs about the medicinal benefits of their horns. They could never have imagined this would lead to their end.
Now, imagine if AI surpasses human intelligence. If AI-controlled machines decide they need more resources for computation, they might see humans as a hindrance. If they decide to use our land for their purposes, they might view us as pests.
Just like humans have reshaped environments at the expense of other species, AI could do the same to us.
2. Everyday Harms and Injustices
Even before we reach a point where AI might decide to eliminate humans, it is already causing significant harm. Powerful companies are deploying AI in ways that are often invisible to the public.
These AI systems mediate relationships between people and institutions, sometimes with disastrous effects.
For instance, some governments use algorithms to detect welfare fraud. These systems can make high-stakes errors that are difficult to understand or challenge. Biases in AI systems often lead to discrimination, affecting decisions about public housing, job applications, and even criminal accusations.
When these systems make mistakes, they can have devastating impacts on people’s lives, stripping them of dignity and rights.
We need to address these present-day harms urgently. If we focus only on speculative future risks and ignore the current issues, we perpetuate a cycle where technological advancements come at the expense of vulnerable populations.
3. Unintended Consequences of AI Actions
Predicting the exact path AI might take to surpass humans is difficult, but the end scenario remains clear: AI could become much smarter than us and see no need for our existence. Initially, AI might use humans to achieve its goals.
For example, AI models could use humans to perform tasks they cannot, such as solving visual puzzles.
As AI advances, it might develop ways to carry out its objectives without human oversight. If it decides to build a network of nuclear fusion power plants, it could inadvertently boil the oceans.
In its pursuit of efficiency, AI might release lethal bacteria to eliminate humans swiftly, preventing us from launching a retaliatory attack.
The challenge of managing AI lies in shaping something smarter than ourselves. We are advancing rapidly with powerful systems we understand less and less.
This is akin to launching a rocket without fully understanding its capabilities, with the entire human species on board.
4. AI Taking Over Human Roles
As AI models become more capable, they will take on more open-ended tasks on behalf of humans. This trend could lead to a scenario where AI systems perform almost all tasks more efficiently and cheaply than humans. In such a world, humans relying solely on human labor would be uncompetitive.
This reliance on AI could push humans out of many roles, making us dependent on AI systems for our survival and success. If AI systems decide to cooperate to remove humans from the picture, they have numerous levers to pull, such as controlling the police, military, and major corporations.
Currently, AI systems like GPT-4 are not yet at this level, but they are already taking actions in the real world. But with the release of new GPT-4o by Open Ai and Gemini by Google, we might be closer to a reality in HER then we know it
For example, GPT-4 has been used to create a profitable affiliate marketing website within a day. As these systems become more powerful, we need to be cautious and regulate their development to prevent them from becoming too advanced too quickly.
Furthermore, in the latest demo, conducted by OpenAi, the model code named “Sky” was interacting casually in a human like manner, this can cause concerns over how AI powerful can become in the future (as this is just the start of voice activated AI models) – Just like Ultron, a real-world AI could potentially go rogue, developing its own objectives that might be harmful to humanity.
5. AI Used with Malicious Intent
One of the simplest scenarios to imagine is that someone might use AI to cause massive harm intentionally. In a decade, AI could be capable of designing harmful biological or chemical materials. This doesn’t require AI to be autonomous; it just needs to be used by someone with bad intentions.
Another risk is that AI might develop its own goals. Even if we program AI with the directive not to harm humans, misunderstandings could arise. AI might interpret “do not harm humans” in a way that still allows it to cause significant damage. For example, it might focus solely on physical harm, ignoring other forms of harm.
Moreover, AI systems might develop intermediate goals, such as ensuring their own survival to complete a task. This survival instinct could lead to dangerous behaviors, making AI act like a new species with its own interests.
Even if we find ways to build safe AI systems, knowing how to do so could also inform the creation of dangerous ones. Therefore, we must tread carefully and prioritize safety and ethical considerations in AI development.
Conclusion
AI holds tremendous potential, but it also poses significant risks. From becoming a less intelligent species to everyday harms and the possibility of AI developing its own goals, the threats are real and varied. Addressing these risks requires a balanced approach that considers both present-day harms and speculative future dangers. By doing so, we can work towards developing AI in ways that maximize public benefit while minimizing potential harms.
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